Mathematical Analysis of the Impact of Poverty and Unemployment on Crime Trends in Sub-Saharan Countries

Bilali Mataru

Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2026, vol. 2026, 1-22

Abstract: Crime remains a persistent global challenge with profound socioeconomic implications. This paper develops a deterministic mathematical model to analyze crime dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa, specifically evaluating the impacts of poverty, unemployment, drug abuse, illiteracy, and socioeconomic inequality. Using the next-generation matrix method, we derive the crime threshold number (R0) to analyze the stability of equilibrium points. Numerical analysis demonstrates that the crime-free equilibrium is stable when the threshold number is less than unity, while center manifold theory reveals a transcritical bifurcation. Numerical simulations using ODE45 indicate that poverty, unemployment, inequality, drug abuse, and illiteracy significantly drive both property and violent crime. The findings suggest that sustainable crime reduction requires addressing these root causes; while imprisonment offers only a short-term solution due to recidivism, optimal vocational training and sustainable employment opportunities prove effective over the long term.

Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/jam/2026/6608738.pdf (application/pdf)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/jam/2026/6608738.xml (application/xml)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jnljam:6608738

DOI: 10.1155/jama/6608738

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Applied Mathematics from Hindawi
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mohamed Abdelhakeem ().