A Stochastic Model for the HIV/AIDS Dynamic Evolution

Giuseppe Di Biase, Guglielmo D'Amico, Arturo Di Girolamo, Jacques Janssen, Stefano Iacobelli, Nicola Tinari and Raimondo Manca

Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2007, vol. 2007, 1-14

Abstract:

This paper analyses the HIV/AIDS dynamic evolution as defined by CD4 levels, from a macroscopic point of view, by means of homogeneous semi-Markov stochastic processes. A large number of results have been obtained including the following conditional probabilities: an infected patient will be in state j after a time t given that she/he entered at time 0 (starting time) in state i ; that she/he will survive up to a time t , given the starting state; that she/he will continue to remain in the starting state up to time t ; that she/he reach stage j of the disease in the next transition, if the previous state was i and no state change occurred up to time t . The immunological states considered are based on CD4 counts and our data refer to patients selected from a series of 766 HIV-positive intravenous drug users.

Date: 2007
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:065636

DOI: 10.1155/2007/65636

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