A Bayesian Method for Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment: A Case Study of the Zhangjiakou Region, North China

Xuan Wang, Fangbing Ma, Chunhui Li and Jie Zhu

Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2015, vol. 2015, 1-16

Abstract:

Water resources vulnerability (WRV) assessment is an important basis for maintaining water resources security in a basin. In this paper, considering the complexity of the water resources system and the uncertainty of the assessment information, a method based on the Bayesian theory was developed for performing WRV assessments while using the constructed indicator system. This system includes four subsystems, the hydrological subsystem, the socioeconomic subsystem, the ecoenvironmental subsystem and the hydraulic engineering subsystem. The WRV degree for each subsystem and the integrated water resources system were assessed. Finally, the assessment results and the characteristics of the Bayesian method were compared with those of the grey relational analysis method and the parametric-system method. The results showed the following. (1) The WRV of the integrated water resources system of the entire Zhangjiakou region was very high; Zhangjiakou City and Xuanhua County have tendencies to belong to Extreme WRV, with probabilities of 26.8% and 25%, respectively, while the other seven administrative counties have tendencies to belong to High WRV, with probabilities ranging from 24.6% to 27%. (2) Compared with the parametric-system method and the grey relational analysis method, the Bayesian method is simple and can effectively address the uncertainty issues with the reliable WRV assessment results.

Date: 2015
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/MPE/2015/120873.pdf (application/pdf)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/MPE/2015/120873.xml (text/xml)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:120873

DOI: 10.1155/2015/120873

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Mathematical Problems in Engineering from Hindawi
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mohamed Abdelhakeem ().