A Hybrid Short-Term Forecasting Model of Passenger Flow on High-Speed Rail considering the Impact of Train Service Frequency

Qingying Lai, Jun Liu, Yongji Luo and Minshu Ma

Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2017, vol. 2017, 1-9

Abstract:

Short-term forecasting of OD (origin to destination) passenger flow on high-speed rail (HSR) is one of the critical tasks in rail traffic management. This paper proposes a hybrid model to explore the impact of the train service frequency (TSF) of the HSR on the passenger flow. The model is composed of two parts. One is the Holt-Winters model, which takes advantage of time series characteristics of passenger flow. The other part considers the changes of TSF for the OD in different time during a day. The two models are integrated by the minimum absolute value method to generate the final hybrid model. The operational data of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway from 2012 to 2016 are used to verify the effectiveness of the model. In addition to the forecasting ability, with a definite formation, the proposed model can be further used to forecast the effects of the TSF.

Date: 2017
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/MPE/2017/1828102.pdf (application/pdf)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/MPE/2017/1828102.xml (text/xml)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:1828102

DOI: 10.1155/2017/1828102

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Mathematical Problems in Engineering from Hindawi
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mohamed Abdelhakeem ().