Dynamic Spreading Model of Passenger Group Panic considering Official Guidance Information in Subway Emergencies

Jiayang Li, Jiafu Tang and Dan Wang

Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2019, vol. 2019, 1-17

Abstract:

Safety concerns are increasing as rail transportation develops at a fast pace. When emergencies erupt in the course of transportation, panic will spread among passengers. Subway operators should understand how the emotions of passengers spread and how the guidance instructions work, in order to effectively deter the transmission of panic. Based on the models of system dynamics, transmission dynamics, and contagious disease, the essay constructs a dynamic transmission model for passenger panic inside the carriage, incorporating the official guidance instructions. Then, the essay utilizes Routh–Hurwitz criteria and analyzes the stability equilibrium of the dynamic differential equation. Mathematical analysis and simulation tests have verified the validity of the model and stability conditions. Finally, it is proved in the essay by mathematical analysis and simulation tests that official guidance instructions can effectively control the spread of panic and quickly stabilize the system. Thus, the essay helps subway operators to come up with clear official guidance, so as to find quick solutions and prevent escalation of panic due to lack of trust.

Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:4691641

DOI: 10.1155/2019/4691641

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