Application of Grey System Model to Forecast the Natural Gas Imports in China

Zhuan-Zhuan Shi, Xiao-Yi Gou and Bo Zeng

Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2021, vol. 2021, 1-10

Abstract:

China’s natural gas imports will keep an upward trend in the future due to its increasing demands. A comparatively accurate prediction of natural gas imports will help the Chinese government make appropriate decisions when formulating energy policies. In this paper, a new grey predication model, GPM_NGI model, was proposed to forecast China’s natural gas imports. Compared with GM (1, 1) and DGM (1, 1) model, the proposed new model performed better in the simulation process and bore smaller mean relative percentage error when used in simulating China’s natural gas imports from 2011 to 2019. Then, the new model was employed to forecast China’s natural gas imports from 2020 to 2022. The results showed that China’s natural gas imports would continue to grow rapidly over the next three years. Therefore, in order to strike a balance between the natural gas supply and demand in the future and avoid overdependence on imports, the Chinese government should take effective measures from both the supply and demand ends, such as making better use of shale gas, wind, and solar energy as well as reducing the industrial dependence on natural gas.

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:5524479

DOI: 10.1155/2021/5524479

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