Forecasting Natural Gas Consumption in the US Power Sector by a Randomly Optimized Fractional Grey System Model

Yubin Cai, Xin Ma, Wenqing Wu and Yanqiao Deng

Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2021, vol. 2021, 1-11

Abstract:

Natural gas is one of the main energy resources for electricity generation. Reliable forecasting is vital to make sensible policies. A randomly optimized fractional grey system model is developed in this work to forecast the natural gas consumption in the power sector of the United States. The nonhomogeneous grey model with fractional-order accumulation is introduced along with discussions between other existing grey models. A random search optimization scheme is then introduced to optimize the nonlinear parameter of the grey model. And the complete forecasting scheme is built based on the rolling mechanism. The case study is executed based on the updated data set of natural gas consumption of the power sector in the United States. The comparison of results is analyzed from different step sizes, different grey system models, and benchmark models. They all show that the proposed method has significant advantages over the other existing methods, which indicates the proposed method has high potential in short-term forecasting for natural gas consumption of the power sector in United States.

Date: 2021
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/MPE/2021/5541650.pdf (application/pdf)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/MPE/2021/5541650.xml (text/xml)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:5541650

DOI: 10.1155/2021/5541650

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Mathematical Problems in Engineering from Hindawi
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mohamed Abdelhakeem ().