日本経済の潜在成長率, The Potential Growth Rate of the Japanese Economy

Hiroshi Yoshikawa

Economic Review, 1999, vol. 50, issue 3, 228-237

Abstract: 潜在成長率を考えるときスタンダードなアプローチは「成長会計」であるが，この論文では「需要」の役割を強調する．わが国では労働力人口の減少に大きな関心がよせられているが過去の経験に照らすとこれは日本経済の成長率を決定的にに左右する要因ではない．重要なのは資本と技術進歩である．スタンダードなアプローチでは 資本蓄積は家計の貯蓄率によって決まると考えるが，投資を決めるのは財に対する需要であり，需要の成長を決めるのは新たな財/セクターを生み出すイノベーションである．イノベーションは全要素生産性（TFP）とは独立に需要を創出することにより成長率を高める．, This paper reviews several estimates of the potential growth rate of Japan during 2000-2025. Most studies draw the same conclusion, that a declining labor force lowers the potential growth rate. We deemphasize the role of a declining labor force for growth, and instead propose a new approach to growth. Our approach emphasizes growth of demand. The economy grows whenever it succeeds in creating new goods or industries whose demand enjoys high growth of demand. The future of the Japanese economy rests on her ability to create such sectors, namely the strength of demand creating innovations.

JEL-codes: O3 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hit:ecorev:v:50:y:1999:i:3:p:228-237

DOI: 10.15057/21591

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