年金財政の将来予測, Exploring a Simulation Model of Social Security Pensions in Japan

Noriyuki Takayama and Kotaro Yamaguchi

Economic Review, 1999, vol. 50, issue 3, 249-258

Abstract: 厚生年金財政の数理モデルを最新の資料を利用して開発し，将来シュミレーションを試みた．そのさい自民党・厚生省による1999年改正案だけでなく，その対案についても財政見通しを示し，基礎年金の税方式および給付の適正化を行えば厚生年金の保険料はピーク時においても現行水準以下に抑えることができることを明らかに した．さらに掛金４％の私的年金プランが公的年金上乗せ効果をどの程度有しているかを推計する一方，基礎年金の繰上げ繰下げに伴う年金の増減率についても最新の生命表を利用して再計算し，現行の増減率は大きすぎるという結論を得た．, Using the latest data on the Japanese social security pension, we have explored a simulation model of its long-term financial balance. With a partial funding shift to a consumption-based tax, a moderate slimming-down of the future anticipated benefits will enable the contribution rate to stay at the level no higher than the current 17.35 percent. A partial replacement by a 4-percent private personal retirement account is also examined. Early-and delayed-retirement options are considered, too.

JEL-codes: G23 H55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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