1980年代以降の長期雇用慣行の動向, Trends in Long-term Employment since the 1980s in Japan

隆夫 加藤, Takao Kato, 龍 神林 and Ryo Kambayashi ()

No 644, Discussion Paper Series from Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University

Abstract: 本稿では、いくつかの政府統計を用いて、1980年代以降の日本における長期雇用慣行の動向を考察した。得られた知見は以下の通りである。(i)平均勤続年数の低下は、勤続5年に至らない被用者が増加したことによって起こっていて、勤続5年を超えた被用者について平均勤続年数の低下は起こっていない。(ii)同様に、勤続5年を超えた大卒被用者について、十年残存率も低下したとはいえない。(iii)一年間の離職確率･失職確率をみても、大卒長期勤続層で大きな変化が起こったとはいえない。(iv)大卒長期勤続層の年齢コホートに占める比率も、顕著に低下しているとはいえない。以上のように、一定時間の勤続を経ていったん定着した大卒被用者の雇用が尊重されなくなってきているという意味で、長期雇用慣行が衰退しているかと問われれば、それは明らかではない。もちろん、近年の日本の労働市場の特徴は、短期勤続階層の増加にあるが、それは労働市場自体の拡大と並行しており、長期勤続階層の絶対数が減少しているわけではないのである。, In this article, we examine the long-term employment in the recent Japanese labor markets, by using the microdata from several governmental statistics since the 1980s. Main findings are as follows: (i) the decline in average tenure is found only in short-tenured workers, and the average tenure for long-tenured workers, e.g. over 5 years, did not decline. (ii) Ten-year-retention rates also keeps almost constant for long-tenured university graduates. (iii) Neither one-year-separation rates nor dismissal-rates have not been changed for long-tenured university graduates. (iv) A decline in the share of long-tenured university graduates within age cohort is not found. Therefore, the long-term employment is still respected as for the employees who have continued working for a long-term, e.g. over 5 years. One characteristic of recent Japanese labor markets, the increase in short-tenured workers, is explained by the expansion of labor market itself. The magnitude of long-term employment has not been declined.

JEL-codes: J21 J63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 55 pages
Date: 2016-08
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