Why Are Japan’s Trade Unions Actually Growing? A Decomposition of Population Datasets

Jacques Wels, Alex Bryson, Ryo Kambayashi, Susumu Kuwahara and Akie Nakamura

No 776, Discussion Paper Series from Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University

Abstract: This study examines two decades of unionization trends in Japan, comparing administrative data from the Basic Survey on Labor Unions (OECD source) with three population-based surveys: the Survey on Work and Life of Workers (SWLW), Japan Household Panel Survey (JHPS), and Japanese General Social Survey (JGSS). While official statistics show declining union density (falling to 16.4% by 2022), survey data reveal consistently higher rates (23-30%) and upward trends. Using shift-share analyses and Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition across two periods (X and Y), we identify workplace union presence as the primary driver of membership growth, accounting for a quarter of the observed increase. We find rising unionization among traditionally underrepresented groups: part-timers show significant unexplained membership gains (0.25 percentage points), suggesting successful outreach beyond compositional changes. Small firms (

Pages: 89 pages
Date: 2026-01
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