The Democracy–Growth Nexus Revisited: A Meta-Analysis of Post-2000 Evidence

Ichiro Iwasaki

No 781, Discussion Paper Series from Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University

Abstract: This paper provides an independent meta-analytic reassessment of the democracy– growth nexus using empirical studies published from 2000 onward. We collect 1,841 estimates from 98 studies and convert them into partial correlation coefficients. The WAAP and UWLS+3 synthesis values are 0.019 and 0.033, respectively, suggesting a small positive average partial association between democracy-related institutional measures and economic growth. Publication selection bias is detected, but several bias-correction methods continue to indicate a positive association. Exploratory regional analysis suggests considerable heterogeneity across target areas, although the region-specific evidence is uneven and should be interpreted cautiously. Overall, the post-2000 empirical literature is consistent with a positive but modest and highly heterogeneous democracy–growth association.

Keywords: democracy; economic growth; regional heterogeneity; meta-analysis; publication selection bias (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C83 O11 O43 P16 P51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49 pages
Date: 2026-08
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