A Modelling Framework for Assessing Adaptive Management Options of Finnish Agrifood Systems to Climate Change

Heikki Lehtonen, Reimund Rötter, Taru Palosuo, Tapio Salo, Janne Helin, Yulia Pavlova and Helena Kahiluoto

Journal of Agricultural Science, 2010, vol. 2, issue 2, 3

Abstract: Improved assessment methods for agriculture production systems are needed to identify the risks andopportunities related to global changes in climate, markets and policies, and the consequences of alternativeoptions of coping with and mitigating the changes. This paper presents the AGRISIMU modelling frameworkdeveloped for ex-ante assessment of alternative policy and management options meant to support farms andagrifood sector adapt to climate change, maintain biodiversity and reduce nutrient emissions under Finnishconditions. The modelling framework represents a novel approach to the integration of data and output fromseveral existing models like a dynamic regional sector model of Finnish agriculture, a farm-level optimisationmodel, a dynamic crop growth simulation model and models describing the nutrient dynamics in agriculturalsystems and a hydrological rainfall-runoff model. The framework is particularly aimed for Nordic conditions andto serve as an assessment tool that considers multiple factor and scale interactions.Â

Date: 2010
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