Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?

Laura Alfaro, Maggie Chen and Davin Chor

No 14597, IDB Publications (Working Papers) from Inter-American Development Bank

Abstract: Amid public skepticism toward trade, we investigate whether evidence-based information - concise statements of research findings - can shape trade policy preferences. In survey experiments conducted on U.S. general population samples from 2018-2022, we consistently uncover a “backfire effect”: information highlighting the benefits of trade, such as job gains in productive sectors or lower prices for consumers, induces protectionist preferences. We interpret this effect as stemming from prior-biased belief updating, whereby the information activates pre-existing concerns about competition for jobs and trade relations with China. These associations are evoked particularly among limited-attention respondents, as well as politically-engaged Republicans.

Keywords: Information; Trade policy preferences; Protectionism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D80 F10 F60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:idb:brikps:14597

DOI: 10.18235/0014042

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