Temporal and Spatial Dimensions of Drought as an Exposure Measure in Fertility Research: A Kenyan Case Study

Ankit Sikarwar and Kathryn Grace

No 312, Working Papers from French Institute for Demographic Studies

Abstract: Climate change has many forms including warming, extreme weather, and seasonal variability. Drought lies at their intersection, posing both immediate shocks and long term consequences for populations. In such conditions demographic implications remain insufficiently understood. Existing research relies on broad hydrometeorological thresholds that overlook the temporal and livelihood-specific dimensions through which households experience climatic variability. This study strengthens the empirical basis of climate–fertility research by examining how complex and context-sensitive drought exposure shapes women’s fertility intentions in Kenya. In this article, we first describe the spatial and temporal complexity of drought using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), a high resolution measure of drought widely used in climate science, then spatially and temporally harmonize the place-based measure with Kenyan women’s fertility intentions from the most recent nationally representative Kenya Demographic and Health Survey. Using this spatially harmonized data we estimate multilevel logistic models, adjusting for key demographic and socioeconomic predictors of fertility preferences. Results reveal a distinct temporal divergence - immediate drought exposure (past 6 months) was associated with lower odds of wanting a(nother) child, particularly in rural areas, whereas longer drought exposure (past 24 months) is associated with increased fertility intentions in both rural and urban settings. Also, with longer drought exposure there is an increase in uncertain fertility intentions. These effects are robust across exposure measurement strategies but are captured most sharply by the seasonally weighted score that aligns monthly drought with the agricultural calendar. These findings highlight the importance of temporally and contextually refined exposure metrics for understanding how climate variability shapes reproductive intentions.

Keywords: climate change; drought; exposure; fertility intentions; Kenya; East Africa; CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE / CLIMATE CHANGE; INTENTIONS DE FECONDITE / FERTILITY INTENTIONS; SECHERESSE / DROUGHT; EXPOSITION AU RISQUE / RISK EXPOSURE; KENYA / KENYA; AFRIQUE ORIENTALE / EAST AFRICA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22
Date: 2026
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-env
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DOI: 10.48756/ined-dt-312.0926

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