Pergerakan Bersama Mata Uang Asean 4 Periode 1997-2005: Suatu Aplikasi Teori Optimal Currency Area dengan Menggunakan Model Vector Error Correction

Moch. Doddy Ariefianto () and Perry Warjiyo ()
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Moch. Doddy Ariefianto: Bank Mandiri
Perry Warjiyo: Bank Indonesia

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 2010, vol. 12, issue 4, 447-480

Abstract: Starting from the Optimum Currency Area (OCA), this paper utilize the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to identify the dynamic short term and the long term co-movement between the ASEAN 4 currencies, including their existing fundamental mechanism. There are at least 3 important findings, (i) the co-movement between the ASEAN 4 currencies is not proved empirically, (ii) the theory of OCA does not robust in explaining the co-movement pattern in ASEAN, and (iii) the existance of OCA is a global phenomena, indicated from the significance of Yen currency on the ASEAN 4. These findings led to a conclusion of this paper that the ongoing economic integration as well as the financial one in ASEAN are not enough to form a unified monetary arrangement nor a common currency in this region.

Keywords: Pergerakan Bersama; Optimum Currency Area; Vector Error Correction Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 F02 F33 F36 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:idn:journl:v:12:y:2010:i:4c:p:447-480

DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v12i4.250

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