PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR RIIL TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN BILATERAL INDONESIA: Kondisi Marshall-Lerner dan Fenomena J-curve

Jardine Ariena Husman ()
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Jardine Ariena Husman: Bank Indonesia

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 2005, vol. 8, issue 3, 1-26

Abstract: The paper analyzes the Marshall-Lerner condition on Indonesian trade with its major trading partners. This study also investigates the existence of J-curve and covers the issue of the indirect pass-through effect, particularly the impact of the real exchange rate change on the Indonesian export performance. We apply the VECM model on the quarterly data of Indonesia and 8 of its trading partners, during the period of 1993:1-2004:4. The estimation result on the overall sample shows that the condition of Marshall-Lerner is satisfied, implying the rupiahs depreciation will increase the Indonesian export. Using each trading partner pair data, the Marshall-Lerner condition is not satisfied on the case of Singapore and England due to the inelastic export demand as the Indonesian export to both countries is mostly a consumption goods. The J-curve phenomenon is only found in the case of Japan, South Korea and Germany implying the depreciation of Rupiahs will increase Indonesian export. The elasticity estimation shows that 1% depreciation of Rupiahs only raise Indonesian export-import ratio by 0.37%. This small number strongly indicates that real exchange rate only plays a minor role on the Indonesian export performance.

Keywords: Exchange rate; J-Curve; Marshall-Lerner; export; VECM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:idn:journl:v:8:y:2005:i:3:p:1-26

DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v8i3.141

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