PENGARUH WISATAWAN ASING DALAM MODEL CURRENT ACCOUNT INDONESIA

Lutzardo Tobing and Paresh K. Narayan
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Lutzardo Tobing: Bank Indonesia

No WP/05/2019, Working Papers from Bank Indonesia

Abstract: The current account of Indonesia has a strong tendency of running persistent deficits or surpluses, presenting an unique opportunity to study its dynamics. We question the role of tourism related in influencing the persistence of the current account balances. We show in the paper that findings under such conditions become strongly sensitive to the time period used. We examined under two sample periods: 1993-2017 (Sample 1); and 2010-2017 (Sample 2) using ARDL model. Our results show, in sample 1, when the current account was mainly in surplus on average, visitor arrivals and other factors like, terms of trade and foreign income failed to influence the current account. The only factors found to be important determinants of the current account in sampel 1 were real effective exchange rate, domestic income, and real interest rate. In other words, in sample 1 we notice the prevalence of domestic factors. Meanwhile in sample 2, the story is different, here visitor arrival, terms of trade, and foreign income are as important as well as real effective exchange rate, real interest rate and domestic income.

Keywords: Current account; Tourism; Exchange rate; Interest rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F30 F31 F43 L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2019
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