STRATEGIES TO ADDRESS THE RISK OF THE MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP: HUMAN CAPITAL, TECHNOLOGY, AND PRODUCTIVITY – LESSONS LEARNED FROM KOREA, CHINA, VIETNAM, AND THAILAND

Danny Hermawan, Cicilia Anggadewi Harun, Citra Amanda, Elpiwin Adela, Marissa Novita, Ananda Surya Dahana Dewantara, Ilham Farizi Indrayadi, Fariz Ahmad Sultansyah and Matias Judatama
Additional contact information
Danny Hermawan: Bank Indonesia
Cicilia Anggadewi Harun: Bank Indonesia
Citra Amanda: Bank Indonesia
Elpiwin Adela: Bank Indonesia
Marissa Novita: Bank Indonesia
Ananda Surya Dahana Dewantara: Bank Indonesia
Ilham Farizi Indrayadi: Bank Indonesia
Fariz Ahmad Sultansyah: Bank Indonesia
Matias Judatama: Bank Indonesia

No WP/06/2025, Working Papers from Bank Indonesia

Abstract: This study investigates the structural challenges hindering Indonesia’s transition toward an innovation-driven, high-income economy, focusing on the interconnected roles of human capital, productivity, and technological capability. Using a mixed-method approach that combines 2SLS econometric modelling with extensive qualitative evidence from national focus group discussions across universities, government institutions, and industry stakeholders, the study finds that weaknesses in education quality, fragmented talent pipelines, and persistent gaps in university-industry collaboration significantly suppress Indonesia’s innovation output. The quantitative results demonstrate that human capital exerts a strong causal influence on productivity and income, yet its impact is constrained by weak R&D ecosystems and low patent generation capacity. Qualitative insights further reveal systemic misalignment across education policy, labour-market demand, and research commercialization, producing a “human capital paradox†in which increased educational attainment does not translate into proportional economic gains. These findings underscore the urgent need for an integrated national strategy that simultaneously strengthens foundational education, expands R&D capacity, and builds cohesive innovation ecosystems to accelerate Indonesia’s escape from the middle-income trap.

Keywords: Emerging Economies; Human Capital; Innovation Ecosystem; MiddleIncome Trap; Productivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I2 O15 O31 O47 O53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sbm
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