A stochastic approach to diffusion model with asymmetric influence

Naomichi Suzuki, Masatoshi Tanaka, Kazuhiro Kasai and Kijung Sung

International Journal of Manufacturing Technology and Management, 2011, vol. 22, issue 1, 78-92

Abstract: A diffusion model with innovators and imitators is formulated by the use of the generalised birth process with immigration. In our formulation, the immigration rate and the birth rate have time dependence. The immigration process corresponds to the behaviour of innovators and the birth process to that of imitators. The Bass model is derived under the assumption that the ratio of the immigration rate to the birth rate is constant. An extension of the Bass model based on the stochastic process is proposed, by which data with broad peak or bimodal shape can be analysed. Data on the sales of new products and on hit phenomena are analysed by the diffusion model.

Keywords: diffusion modelling; asymmetric influence; birth and death process; Bass model; immigration rate; birth rate; new products; new product sales; innovators; imitators; product diffusion. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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