Global versus Country-Specific Shocks and International Business Cycles

Michel Normandin () and Bruno Powo Fosso

No 05-07, Cahiers de recherche from HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée

Abstract: This paper documents the relative importance of global and country-specific shocks for international business cycles. For this purpose, we rely on a symmetric two-country, dynamic, general-equilibrium model with costly, incomplete, international financial markets. We also relate exogenous technologies and government expenditures to unobservable common and idiosynchratic components, and apply a Kalman filter to extract the associated global and country-specific shocks. We show that the baseline parametrization of the model, including all shocks, closely matches the cyclical fluctuations of key macroeconomic variables for the United States and a non-US aggregate over the post-1975 period. We then experiment alternative parametrizations, isolating the effects of each shock, and find that country-specific technology shocks constitute a prime determinant of international business cycles. Also, global technology shocks have marginal contributions, whereas global and country-specific government-expenditure shocks have negligible effects on cyclical fluctuations.

Keywords: General Equilibrium; Kalman Filter; Symmetric Economies. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 F32 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48 pages
Date: 2005-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-dge and nep-mac
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Related works:
Journal Article: Global versus country-specific shocks and international business cycles (2010)
Working Paper: Global versus Country-Specific Shocks and International Business Cycles (2006)
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