Crude oil market development in 2015 and first quarter of 2016. Outlook for 2016

Mariana Papatulică

Conjunctura economiei mondiale / World Economic Studies, 2016, 209-221

Abstract: International crude oil market faces almost 2 years of sharp fall in benchmark crude oil prices (mainly Brent) from $ 105.7 / barrel in June 2014 to $ 36 / barrel in December 2015 and a minimum of $ 27-28 / barrel (for the last 13 years), in January 2016.Several economists are raising the question whether low crude oil prices are a “growth factor or a curse” for the world economy, and whether they could even cause a recession. While some say it is good for consumers, others say it is bad for the global economy. Low oil prices could create disadvantages by causing deflation. The risk is that deflationary expectations determine consumers to refrain from additional purchases in anticipation of even lower prices. This would lead to excess production capacity and ample inventories that will force down prices further. Historically speaking, plummeting crude oil prices have been perceived as a growth factor, especially in net importing countries. But this has not yet been translated into tangible positive economic effects worldwide.

Keywords: crude oil price; crude oil supply; fundamental factors; macroeconomic effects; deflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iem:conjun:y:2016:p:209-221

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