Analysis and Forecasting of the Earth's Temperature Using Methods Mathematical Statistics and Synergetic Information Theory

Faig Bakhman Ogli Naghiyev
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Faig Bakhman Ogli Naghiyev: Leningrad Polytechnic Institute, Saint Petersburg, Russia

International Journal of Chemoinformatics and Chemical Engineering (IJCCE), 2018, vol. 7, issue 2, 29-42

Abstract: The dynamics of temperature change in the lower troposphere of the Earth is analyzed. The presence of trend component in temperature dynamics of Earth from 1880-2017 was revealed. The method of forecasting climate warming on Earth in the conditions of the greenhouse effect has been tested. The method of correlation analysis revealed the presence of significant correlations in the Earth's lower troposphere between temperature and carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and methane concentration. A similar conclusion was also made on the basis of the strong elongation of the shape of the correlation fields between these signs. A linear regression model was used, which made it possible to forecast the change in temperature depending on the carbon dioxide concentration. The temperature dynamics in the lower troposphere of the Earth is analyzed by the methods of the synergetic theory of information using entropy and negentropy. Calculations showed that the behavior of the entropy and negentropy can also predict an anomalous change in the temperature of the Earth.

Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:igg:jcce00:v:7:y:2018:i:2:p:29-42

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