Modeling and Methodology for Incorporating Existing Technologies to Produce Higher Probabilities of Detecting Suicide Bombers

William P. Fox, John Binstock and Mike Minutas
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William P. Fox: Department of Defense Analysis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA
John Binstock: Department of Information Systems (C4I), Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA
Mike Minutas: Department of Information Systems (C4I), Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA

International Journal of Operations Research and Information Systems (IJORIS), 2013, vol. 4, issue 3, 1-18

Abstract: Among the many weapons currently used by terrorist organizations against public welfare and coalition forces, human-born Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) present a significant threat. Commonly referred to as suicide bombers, these individuals enter crowded public areas in order to detonate their IED, inflicting lethal damage to the surrounding individuals. Constructed of non-standard parts and hidden under layers of clothing, these human-born IEDs go undetected until detonated. Currently, there are no detection systems that can identify suicide bombers at adequate standoff distances. The authors developed models and a methodology that examine current technologies to increase the probability of identifying a suicide bomber at a checkpoint or marketplace with an adequate standoff distance. The proposed methodology employs sensor technology incorporating unique detection threshold values. The authors analyze our proposed methodology utilizing a simulation model that provides both the probability of detecting a bomber and the probability of a false detection. These simulations will allow us to determine the threshold values for each sensor that result in the best probability of detection of a suicide bomber and allows for a small probability of false detections. Using experimentally “good” threshold values, the authors were able to drastically increase the probability of detection with a combination of radar and thermal imagery. In this paper, the main sensor is the hand-held radar.

Date: 2013
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