Docking Two Models of Insurgency Growth

Michael Jaye and Robert Burks
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Michael Jaye: Department of Defense Analysis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA
Robert Burks: Operations Research Department, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA

International Journal of Operations Research and Information Systems (IJORIS), 2013, vol. 4, issue 3, 19-30

Abstract: The use of agent-based simulations (ABS) in social science applications presents validation challenges. In this study, the authors use two theories for the growth of rebellion, one an ABS and the other implemented as a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Epstein’s (2001) theory for the rise of rebellion serves as one conceptual model. The authors implement this theory in NetLogo, with several modifications. The second conceptual model likens the spread of an insurgency to that of an infectious disease, specifically the susceptible-infected-removed-susceptible (SIRS) model. The authors find that the similarity of the ODE model results to those obtained from certain parameters of the ABS implementation serves as a form of model validation. The term used for this type of validation is docking. In addition, other results obtained from the ABS – not directly attainable from the ODE model but which match observed phenomenon in socio-political systems – also demonstrates operational validity.

Date: 2013
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