Dealing with Multiple Models in System Dynamics: Perspectives on the Future of Copper

Willem L. Auping, Erik Pruyt and Jan H. Kwakkel
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Willem L. Auping: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, The Hague, Netherlands
Erik Pruyt: Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
Jan H. Kwakkel: Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands

International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA), 2014, vol. 3, issue 4, 17-35

Abstract: This paper introduces an approach to compare simulation runs from multiple System Dynamics simulation models. Three dynamic hypotheses regarding the uncertain evolutions of long-term copper availability are introduced and used to illustrate the new approach. They correspond to three different perspectives on the copper system (global top-down, global bottom-up, and regional top-down). Although each of these models allows to generate a wealth of behavioural patterns, the focus in this paper is on the differences in trajectories caused by different models for identical values of shared parameters and identical settings of other assumptions, not on differences in behavioural patterns caused by each of the models. Hence, differences in trajectories between the three models are identified, quantified, and classified based on a quantified measure of difference. For these models, small differences between the trajectories are only found in stable runs, while the alternative perspectives are largely responsible for medium to large differences. Hence, it is concluded that multiple dynamic hypotheses may have to be modelled when dealing with uncertain issues.

Date: 2014
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