A Hierarchical Procedure for the Combination of Forecasts; This is a revised version of Working Paper 228, Economics Series, October 2008, which includes some changes. The most important change regards the reference of Kisinbay (2007), which was not reported in the previous version. The hierarchical procedure proposed in the paper is based on the approach of Kisinbay (2007), but some modifications of that approach are provided

Mauro Costantini and Carmine Pappalardo
Additional contact information
Carmine Pappalardo: Institute for Studies and Economic Analysis (ISAE), Rome, Italy

No 240, Economics Series from Institute for Advanced Studies

Abstract: This paper proposes a strategy to increase the efficiency of forecast combination. Given the availability of a wide range of forecasts for the same variable of interest, our goal is to apply combining methods to a restricted set of models. To this aim, a hierarchical procedure based on an encompassing test is developed. Firstly, forecasting models are ranked according to a measure of predictive accuracy (RMSFE). The models are then selected for combination such that each forecast is not encompassed by any of the competing forecasts. Thus, the procedure aims to unit model selection and model averaging methods. The robustness of the procedure is investigated in terms of the relative RMSFE using ISAE (Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses) short-term forecasting models for monthly industrial production in Italy.

Keywords: Combining forecasts; Econometric models; Evaluating forecasts; Models selection; Time series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 17 pages
Date: 2009-07
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/1923 First version, 2009 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:240

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Institute for Advanced Studies - Library, Josefstädterstr. 39, A-1080 Vienna, Austria

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Economics Series from Institute for Advanced Studies Josefstädterstr. 39, A-1080 Vienna, Austria. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Doris Szoncsitz ().