Where is AI in GDP statistics?

Anton Korinek and Patrick McKelvey
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Patrick McKelvey: Bank of Canada

No PB26-7, Policy Briefs from Peterson Institute for International Economics

Abstract: The AI economy in the United States has been growing at an unprecedented rate, but this extraordinary growth is largely invisible in conventional statistics. The authors propose developing an "AI GDP" framework to better measure AI's growing role in the economy. -Key Takeaways -Quality-adjusted AI production in the United States grew at over 2,000 percent per year in 2024 and 2025, driven by three compounding forces: expanding data-center capacity, hardware efficiency gains, and—the largest of the three—algorithmic progress. -Treating the AI sector as a coherent economic entity yields preliminary estimates of nominal AI GDP at approximately $250 billion in 2025, growing at roughly 2,600 percent per year in quality-adjusted real terms. -National economic statistics accounts were not designed to track this kind of activity. Statistics agencies should begin developing AI-focused satellite accounts now, before the measurement gap becomes a policy gap.

Date: 2026-05
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