Stopping the flow: The effects of US-China cooperation on fentanyl markets and overdose deaths

Marcus Noland, Julieta Contreras and Lucas Rengifo-Keller
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Lucas Rengifo-Keller: Former Peterson Institute for International Economics

No WP25-9, Working Paper Series from Peterson Institute for International Economics

Abstract: Drug overdose is the leading cause of death among Americans aged 15-44, exceeding heart disease, cancer, suicide, vehicular accidents, and COVID-19 in 2023. Most drug deaths are associated with fentanyl. This paper uses data on illicit drug prices to estimate reduced-form price equations of fentanyl, oxycodone, and alprazolam based on supply and demand, including hedonic characteristics. The results are used to estimate the relationship between fentanyl prices and overdoses. They suggest that the Chinese embargo on fentanyl shipments to the United States beginning in May 2019 raised street prices for a limited period, reducing fentanyl overdose deaths in the United States by roughly one-quarter over a three- to five-month period after the announcement.

Keywords: Drugs; opioids; fentanyl; overdose deaths; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F51 I1 K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-05
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