An Interpretable Machine Learning Workflow with an Application to Economic Forecasting

Marcus Buckmann and Andreas Joseph
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Marcus Buckmann: Bank of England
Andreas Joseph: Bank of England

International Journal of Central Banking, 2023, vol. 19, issue 4, 449-522

Abstract: When the future state of the economy is uncertain, yet a central bank has more information about the possible scenarios, how should the central bank communicate its private information to the public? This paper analyzes the optimal tone of central bank Delphic forward guidance using the Bayesian persuasion model (Kamenica and Gentzkow 2011). Assuming that monetary policy is an exogenously given function over the states of the economy and that the central bank is precommitted to a forward-guidance policy function, under certain conditions, the optimal tone of communication about the uncertain future is overly pessimistic.

JEL-codes: C14 C45 C53 E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2023:q:4:a:10

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