Design and Estimation of a Quadratic Term Structure Model with a Mixture of Normal Distributions

Kentaro Kikuchi
Additional contact information
Kentaro Kikuchi: Deputy Director and Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: kentarou.kikuchi@boj.or.jp)

No 12-E-08, IMES Discussion Paper Series from Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan

Abstract: To keep yields non-negative in a quadratic Gaussian term structure model (QGTM), the short rate is represented by the quadratic form of the Gaussian state variables. The QGTM is among the most attractive candidate tools for analyzing yield curves for countries with low interest rates. However, the model is unlikely to capture the fat- tailed feature of changes in yields observed in actual bond markets. This study extends the QGTM by introducing state variables whose future distributions follow a mixture of normal distributions. This extension allows our model to accommodate vast changes in non-negative yields. As an illustrative empirical study, we applied our model to Japanese government bond (JGB) yields using the unscented Kalman filter. We then used the parameters obtained to investigate market views on past JGB interest rates by simulating future interest rate probability distributions under the physical measure and by decomposing interest rates into expected short rates and term premia.

Keywords: affine term structure model; quadratic Gaussian term structure model; mixture of normal distributions; unscented Kalman filter; maximum likelihood method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 E43 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-06
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/12-E-08.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ime:imedps:12-e-08

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMES Discussion Paper Series from Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Kinken ().