Computerization and the Educational Composition of Routine Work

Hiroshi Inokuma
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Hiroshi Inokuma: Director, Financial System and Bank Examination Department, Bank of Japan (E-mail: hiroshi.inokuma@boj.or.jp)

No 26-E-05, IMES Discussion Paper Series from Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan

Abstract: Over the past four decades in the US, routine employment has declined sharply while college attainment has risen steadily. I develop a quantitative model in which workers choose whether to attend college and whether to work in abstract or routine occupations. The calibrated model implies that computerization raises the return to educational skill within routine work, raising the within-occupation college share faster in routine jobs than in abstract jobs. I test this implication in the data by estimating how baseline task content predicts subsequent educational upgrading across occupations. The regression evidence confirms faster college-share growth in more routine-taskintensive occupations. Quantitatively, the model attributes about one half of the aggregate increase in the college share over 1980-2019 to computerization.

Keywords: investment specific technological change; computerization; occupational choice; schooling choice (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 I21 J24 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03
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