The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Debt Sustainability Analysis

International Monetary Fund

No 2005/027, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper presents key findings of debt sustainability analysis (DSA) for Ethiopia. The stress tests reveal that Ethiopia’s external debt and debt service indicators are particularly sensitive to the terms of new borrowing and negative export shocks. The baseline projections appear fragile to adverse shocks and embody optimistic assumptions relative to Ethiopia’s historical trend over the past 10 years. The public debt DSA indicates some risk arising from output growth and the primary balance remaining at historical averages.

Keywords: ISCR; CR; NPV; debt; real GDP; ratio; GDP deflator; NPV of debt-to-exports ratio; debt service indicator; NPV of debt-to-GDP; debt ratio; estimates of NPV; NPV of the public debt; sustainability assessment; burden indicator; PPG debt service-to-exports ratio; NPV of PPG; sustainability framework; Fiscal stance; Exports; Debt sustainability analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 17
Date: 2005-01-28
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