Guinea: Selected Issues

International Monetary Fund

No 2016/262, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This Selected Issues paper presents the results of the application of the Debt, Investment, and Growth model to the case of Guinea. The model application allows simulation of the macroeconomic implications of scaled-up investment on growth, fiscal policy, and debt sustainability. A scenario analysis comparing the results under different investment paths is also presented. The results suggest that Guinea stands to benefit substantially from scaled-up public investment. Model-based estimates suggest that the GDP per capita benefits from the authorities’ public infrastructure program could be in the vicinity of 2–4 percent. However, ensuring that the expected growth and poverty reduction gains are realized requires the implementation of an accompanying fiscal strategy to preserve macroeconomic stability.

Keywords: ISCR; CR; Guinea; financial service; indirect tax; direct tax; firm; banks' return on equity; microfinance institutions; growth model; tax potential; banks in Guinea; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Financial inclusion; Financial sector development; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46
Date: 2016-07-29
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