Angola: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Angola

International Monetary Fund

No 2025/062, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Angola highlights that the economy recovered in 2024 as oil sector rebounded from its slump. High external debt service constrains development spending, while oil dependence represents a drag on sustainable growth. Inflation remains elevated, fueled by exchange rate depreciation, and import substitution measures that have restricted food supply. The recovery is facing short-term headwinds. Gross financing needs are relatively large, while financing from global and domestic markets remains expensive. In anticipation of the 2027 presidential elections, delays in key reforms and fiscal slippages beyond the baseline, could undermine growth and weigh on the fiscal outlook. A stronger-than-expected decline in oil prices would weaken the external and fiscal positions. On the upside, spillovers from the global monetary easing and higher than-assumed oil revenues could improve fiscal and growth outlook. The authorities’ cash and debt management efforts will help mitigate liquidity risks. Complementary efforts to re-enter external debt markets and develop the domestic debt market over the medium term will be crucial.

Keywords: AFRITAC South; debt management effort; production capacity; inflation expectation; policy transmission; Credit; Inflation; Global; Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 79
Date: 2025-03-05
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