Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues

International Monetary Fund

No 2025/119, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper presents a detailed study that reassesses potential output in the Kyrgyz Republic in light of recent structural changes and external shocks, including the pandemic and the regional conflict. Using a combination of production function analysis, state-space models, and univariate filters, the paper provides a comprehensive estimate of the country’s evolving productive capacity. The findings indicate a notable rise in potential output growth to 5.3 percent, largely driven by capital accumulation and labor force expansion. A notable driver of recent growth dynamics is the influx of Russian migrants since 2022. However, total factor productivity remains below historical averages.

Keywords: Kyrgyzstan soes health check; output gap dynamics; unit Labor; IMF SOE health check tool; labor market analysis; TFP series; Potential output; Labor markets; Fiscal risks; Labor market policy; Central Asia; Global; Middle East; North Africa; Europe; Central Asia and the Caucasus (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43
Date: 2025-06-04
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