Solving the Canonical Quarterly Projection Model Using EViews

Sam Ouliaris and Celine Rochon

No 2026/003, IMF Technical Notes and Manuals from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) is one of the IMF’s standard frameworks for monetary policy analysis and forms a core component of a forward‑looking Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). Traditionally, the QPM is solved using simulation tools available in MATLAB. This technical note demonstrates how the canonical QPM can instead be implemented using the EViews econometric package, with the aim of reducing the technical barriers to applying the model in practice. The note is intended for policy analysts and economists who wish to adapt the QPM to country‑specific settings without requiring advanced proficiency in the EViews programming language. The approach is illustrated using a notional “Country Z,” but the methodology can be readily adapted to real‑world country applications. Users need only to assemble the required data and make targeted modifications to existing EViews code, such as selecting the appropriate exchange‑rate regime equations and calibrating key model constants. In addition to solving the QPM for its baseline projection, the technical note shows how to construct and analyze alternative scenarios. These scenarios may involve multiple exogenous shocks and constraints on selected endogenous variables, enabling users to assess the dynamic response of the economy and the speed and path of its return to the baseline.

Keywords: forecasting; monetary policy analysis; quarterly projection model; time series analysis; real exchange rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 67
Date: 2026-04-06
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