Guns or Butter: Decision Support for Determining the Size and Shape of the South African National Defense Force

Ivan Gryffenberg, Jean L. Lausberg, Willem J. Smit, Stephanus Uys, Sally Botha, F. Rauten Hofmeyr, Ruppert P. Nicolay, Willie L. van der Merwe and Gysbert J. Wessels
Additional contact information
Ivan Gryffenberg: Operations Division, Defense Headquarters, Private Bag X161, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
Jean L. Lausberg: Operations Division, Defense Headquarters, Private Bag X161, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
Willem J. Smit: Operations Division, Defense Headquarters, Private Bag X161, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
Stephanus Uys: Operations Division, Defense Headquarters, Private Bag X161, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
Sally Botha: Deloitte & Touche Consulting Group, PO Box 11007, Pretoria 0028, South Africa
F. Rauten Hofmeyr: Deloitte & Touche Consulting Group, PO Box 11007, Pretoria 0028, South Africa
Ruppert P. Nicolay: Deloitte & Touche Consulting Group, PO Box 11007, Pretoria 0028, South Africa
Willie L. van der Merwe: Deloitte & Touche Consulting Group, PO Box 11007, Pretoria 0028, South Africa
Gysbert J. Wessels: Deloitte & Touche Consulting Group, PO Box 11007, Pretoria 0028, South Africa

Interfaces, 1997, vol. 27, issue 1, 7-28

Abstract: In January of 1994, the chief of the South African National Defense Force (SANDF) asked the question: “In the absence of a conventional military threat, what should the size and shape of the SANDF be?” A joint SANDF and Deloitte and Touche team supported the joint strategic management process (JSMP) with OR/MS based decision support models. The team created the following models: a risk model of the probability and potential impact of various defense contingencies, a growth model of growth potential of force structure elements, a cost model (zero based), a mixed-integer-programming model of all the relationships, and a manual model allowing the user to select different tasks and strategies. The project resulted in a saving on the approved force design (size and shape) of more than 22 percent. The results indicate clear opportunities for major additional savings.

Keywords: military; cost effectiveness; decision analysis; applications (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1997
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