Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen

Dimitris Bertsimas (), Michael Lingzhi Li (), Xinggang Liu (), Jennings Xu () and Najat Khan ()
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Dimitris Bertsimas: Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142
Michael Lingzhi Li: Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139
Xinggang Liu: Data Science, Janssen Pharmaceuticals Research and Development LLC, Titusville, New Jersey 08560
Jennings Xu: Data Science, Janssen Pharmaceuticals Research and Development LLC, Titusville, New Jersey 08560
Najat Khan: Data Science, Janssen Pharmaceuticals Research and Development LLC, Titusville, New Jersey 08560

Interfaces, 2023, vol. 53, issue 1, 70-84

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred extensive vaccine research worldwide. One crucial part of vaccine development is the phase III clinical trial that assesses the vaccine for safety and efficacy in the prevention of COVID-19. In this work, we enumerate the first successful implementation of using machine learning models to accelerate phase III vaccine trials, working with the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine to predictively select trial sites with naturally high incidence rates (“hotspots”). We develop DELPHI, a novel, accurate, policy-driven machine learning model that serves as the basis of our predictions. During the second half of 2020, the DELPHI-driven site selection identified hotspots with more than 90% accuracy, shortened trial duration by six to eight weeks (approximately 33%), and reduced enrollment by 15,000 (approximately 25%). In turn, this accelerated time to market enabled Janssen’s vaccine to receive its emergency use authorization and realize its public health impact earlier than expected. Several geographies identified by DELPHI have since been the first areas to report variants of concern (e.g., Omicron in South Africa), and thus DELPHI’s choice of these areas also produced early data on how the vaccine responds to new threats. Johnson & Johnson has also implemented a similar approach across its business including supporting trial site selection for other vaccine programs, modeling surgical procedure demand for its Medical Device unit, and providing guidance on return-to-work programs for its 130,000 employees. Continued application of this methodology can help shorten clinical development and change the economics of drug development by reducing the level of risk and cost associated with investing in novel therapies. This will allow Johnson & Johnson and others to enable more effective delivery of medicines to patients.

Keywords: epidemiology; COVID-19; vaccine; clinical trial; machine learning; real-world evidence; location selection; Edelman Award (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:orinte:v:53:y:2023:i:1:p:70-84

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