Latent Indexation and Exchange Rate Passthrough

Antonio Fiorencio and Ajax Moreira

No 83, Discussion Papers from Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA

Abstract: This paper uses VAR models to discuss two main questions: a) are the indexing mechanisms that characterised the Brazilian economy for decades a thing of the past, or could they be easily reactivated in the event of some important price shock? b) given the fiscal stance, what would be the likely consequences of a nominal devaluation on inflation, the real exchange rate, real interest rates and unemployment? One of the main results of the paper is tha a possible measure of the degree of indexation of the Brazilian price system was sharply reduced after the Real Plan. Este artigo utiliza modelos auto-regressivos vetoriais para discutir duas questões principais: a) os mecanismos de indexação que caracterizaram a economia brasileira por décadas são fatos do passado ou podem ser facilmente reativados no caso de um importante choque de preços?; e b) dada as condições fiscais, quais as conseqüências de uma desvalorização nominal sobre as taxas de inflação, de juros e de desemprego? Um dos principais resultados deste artigo é que a medida proposta do grau de indexação do sistema de preços no Brasil reduziu-se fortemente depois do Plano Real.

Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2015-01
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