Crescimento das Indústrias Exportadoras no Brasil: um modelo dinâmico de efeitos fixos com o PIB mundial como variável

Patrick Alves and Miguel Bruno

No 1231, Discussion Papers from Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA

Abstract: The empiric literature has been finding a robust positive correlation between economic acting and exports, at the industrial plant and also for the economy as a whole. That relationship backrest with the law of Kaldor-Thirwall, that emphasizes the importance of the foreign trade as an engine of the growth, and the emergence of economies characterized by an export-led growth pattern. Though, the endogeneity between economic growth and exports evidences the need of appropriate econometric specifications, including the approach of the instrumental variables. The model of dynamic panels developed by Arellano and Bond (1991) it is a justifiable solution for this situation, being considering that the official data sources for the formation of panels of companies usually have short periodicity. To correct the endogeneity of models, the present work uses the Brazilian commercial partners` GDP as instrumental variable. The found results suggest the existence of positive impacts of the exports on the Brazilian industrial companies, when the dynamic models are used, even after using this instrument in the estimate in two steps.

Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2006-11
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