Forecasting medical inflation in the European Union using the ARIMA model

Enja Erker ()
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Enja Erker: Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Public Sector Economics, 2024, vol. 48, issue 1, 39-56

Abstract: As healthcare costs continue to pose significant challenges for governments and policymakers, accurate forecasting of medical inflation has become crucial in the European Union. This study aims to provide insights into the trajectory of medical inflation within the EU using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and to check whether this model is an effective tool for predictions of medical inflation. The findings of the study have significant implications across various sectors. With accurate forecasts of medical inflation, policymakers can proactively address challenges, insurers can determine appropriate premiums and develop innovative models, and healthcare entities can allocate resources strategically to ensure financial stability and quality care.

Keywords: medical inflation; HICP; ARIMA model; time series forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C32 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ipf:psejou:v:48:y:2024:i:1:p:39-56

DOI: 10.3326/pse.48.1.2

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