Modelo poblacional mexicano con técnica TAR

Raúl Camacho-Erazo, Carlos Gómez-Chiñas and Jesus Porras-Serrano
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Raúl Camacho-Erazo: Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México
Carlos Gómez-Chiñas: Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana
Jesus Porras-Serrano: Instituto Politécnico Nacional

eseconomía, 2012, vol. VII, issue 33, 25-43

Abstract: En este trabajo se presenta el análisis del comportamiento dinámico poblacional mexicano en el periodo de 1910 hasta 2010. Se emplearon los métodos arima–tar para poder captar los ciclos de recesiones y expansiones de la serie. Se intercalaron modelos con regímenes cambiantes del tipo Tsay (1994), dichos regímenes representan los cambios estructurales que permearon en la composición demográfica, resultante de la dinámica de políticas poblacionales. Se registraron tres regímenes (1912-1921; 1922-1967 y 1968-2010), en los dos primeros se implementaron políticas pronatalistas y en el último, la política poblacional ha sido dirigida para promover la desaceleración del ritmo de crecimiento demográfico./ This paper presents the analysis of the dynamic Mexican population behavior in the period from 1910 to 2010. arima–tar methods were used to capture cycles of recessions and expansions in the series. Models are interspersed with changing regimes of the type Tsay (1994), these systems represent the structural changes in the demographic composition permeate resulting from the dynamics of population policies. There were registered three regimes (1912-1921-1922-1967), in the first two pronatalist policies were implemented. And, in the third, population policy has been aimed at promoting the slowdown in population growth.

Keywords: modelos lineales auto regresivos por tramos; cambios estructurales; variable umbral./ autoregressive linear models in sections; Structural Changes; variable threshold. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ipn:esecon:v:vii:y:2012:i:33:p:25-43

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