Leading indicators on construction and retail trade sectors based on ISAE survey data

Luciana Crosilla and Solange Leproux
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Luciana Crosilla: ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses
Solange Leproux: ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses

No 77, ISAE Working Papers from ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY)

Abstract: According to the Commission recommendations, ISAE has recently restructured the methodological framework of its survey on firms operating in the Italian construction sector and in retail trade. The innovations specifically regard the sampling design and the weight system for both sectors; this last revision, in particular, allowed the reconstruction of the ISAE historical series. In the light of the changes introduced, the aim of this paper is to analyze the cyclical features and to evaluate the “leading” performances of the new ISAE series with respect to the quantitative ISTAT data and to build a “leading indicator” for both construction and retail trade in Italy. We first apply the NBER methodology in order to establish the main cyclical features of the series. Then we use crosscorrelation analysis to estimate the extent to which the ISAE variables and the ISTAT series are correlated. Moreover the Granger causality and out of sample tests were used to evaluate the forecasting performance of the ISAE series. On the basis of the results obtained, we finally build a leading indicator for both sectors, and test its performance comparing the results to those of the confidence index elaborated by ISAE.

Keywords: Leading indicators; cyclical analysis; construction survey; retail trade survey. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C42 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2007-02
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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