The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty on Turkish Unemployment

Ahmet Güney (), Mustafa Karakuş and Nuriye Güneyi
Additional contact information
Ahmet Güney: Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Labor Economics and Industrial Relations, Ankara-Türkiye
Mustafa Karakuş: Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University, Gölbaşı Vocational School, Department of Wholesale and Retail Sales, Ankara-Türkiye
Nuriye Güneyi: İnönü University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Malatya-Türkiye

Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 2024, vol. 11, issue 2, 226-241

Abstract: Türkiye is a small open economy with free capital mobility; therefore, it may be subject to international transmission of economic policy uncertainty shocks. This study seeks to determine whether foreign economic policy uncertainties drive unemployment fluctuations in Türkiye. We investigate the spillover effects of global and regional economic policy uncertainty indexes and local variables on the Turkish labour market. The study’s main findings show that unemployment is the highest net information receiver under full and rolling sample analysis. The findings also indicate that United States policy uncertainty affects interest rates and inflation through the capital channel. In contrast, European Union and Germany-induced effects affect industrial production and unemployment through the trade channel. The effect of policy uncertainty in EU countries is stronger on unemployment. Local factors influence unemployment more than global factors. Taking steps to control local factors would be beneficial for employment continuity by policymakers.

Keywords: Economic policy uncertainty (EPU); Spillover effects; Unemployment; Labour market JEL Classification : J101; E44; J64; E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/41A9B1E3B22F454BA3759F3921347F7E (application/pdf)
https://iupress.istanbul.edu.tr/en/journal/jepr/ar ... turkish-unemployment (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ist:iujepr:v:11:y:2024:i:2:p:226-241

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Economic Policy Researches is currently edited by Halil TUNALI

More articles in Journal of Economic Policy Researches from Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Istanbul University Press Operational Team (Ertuğrul YAŞAR) ().