U.S. Soybean Yields: Estimation and Forecasting with Non-Symmetric Disturbances

Paul W. Gallagher

Staff General Research Papers Archive from Iowa State University, Department of Economics

Abstract: National average soybean yields are skewed with a relatively high chance of low yields. Maximum likelihood estimates support this hypothesis Revised forecasts which account for skewed yields are positioned higher than forecasts based on the illusion of a symmetric distribution Also, yield instability has been increasing steadily; the standard deviation of the soybean yield distribution is twenty-five percent higher m the late 1980s than it was in the early 1970s.

Date: 1987-11-01
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Published in American Journal of Agricultural Economics, November 1987, vol. 69 no. 4, pp. 796-803

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:isu:genres:10779

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