U. S. Corn Yield Capacity and Probability: Estimation and Forecasting with Non-Symmetric Disturbances

Paul W. Gallagher

Staff General Research Papers Archive from Iowa State University, Department of Economics

Abstract: This article explores the hypothesis that National Average Corn yields are skewed with a relatively high chance of occasional low yields. Maximum likelihood estimates support this hypothesis. Revised forecasts which account for skewed corn yields feature point and interval forecasts that are positioned higher than forecasts based on symmetric distributions. Moreover, the chance of very low corn yields dominates the chance that the revised interval forecast is not realized.

Date: 1986-01-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Published in North Central Journal of Agricultural Economics, January 1986, vol. 8 no. 1

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:isu:genres:10780

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