Hog Price Forecast Errors in the Last 10 and 15 Years: University, Futures and Seasonal Index

John D. Lawrence and Priscila Aguiar

Staff General Research Papers Archive from Iowa State University, Department of Economics

Abstract: One of the main goals of livestock price forecasts is to reduce the risk associated with decisions that producers make. Thus, the producers need instruments that decrease or at least identify the risk, and help the producer's decision. The Lean Hog Futures is a single location where anyone with an option on what prices will be in the future can essentially vote their forecast by taking a position in the market. The resulting futures prices represent a "composite" forecast at a particular point in time. Because hog prices follow a fairly predictable seasonal pattern, the current price coupled with this historical relationship can be used to forecast prices.

Date: 2005-01-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:isu:genres:12458

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