Do Identical Win Probabilities Generate Different Perceptions of Uncertainty? Comparing Elections and Sports

Kyohei Yamada
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Kyohei Yamada: IUJ Research Institute, International University of Japan

No EMS_2026_17, Working Papers from Research Institute, International University of Japan

Abstract: This paper examines whether the relationship between numerically presented winning probabilities and subjectively perceived uncertainty of outcome differs between elections and sports. For example, when the probability of winning is presented as 80%, some people may perceive the likelihood of winning as extremely high, while others might feel that the outcome is still uncertain as there remains a 20% chance of losing. Given this ambiguity, I experimentally manipulate winning probabilities to assess how different winning probabilities are perceived in terms of subjective uncertainty. Furthermore, given the potentially different nature of competition between elections and sports, I examine whether the results vary between the two contexts. The results reveal that: (1) for both elections and sports, perceived uncertainty was highest when the winning probability was at or near 50%; (2) however, the level of uncertainty differed between probabilities equally distant from 50%, with greater uncertainty at lower probabilities (e.g., 20%) than at higher probabilities (e.g., 80%); (3) finally, while perceived uncertainty in elections substantially decreased as the winning probability moved away from 50%, it remained relatively high across a broader range of probabilities in sports.

Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2026-09
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