Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management: evidence from four case studies in Africa

J. Reinhardt, S. Liersch, M. A. Abdeladhim, M. Diallo, Chris Dickens, S. Fournet, F. F. Hattermann, C. Kabaseke, M. Muhumuza, Marloes L. Mul, T. Pilz, I. M. Otto and A. Walz

Papers published in Journals (Open Access), 2018, 23(1):1-34.

Abstract: Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.

Keywords: Natural; resources; management; Participatory; research; Sustainability; Assessment; Stakeholders; Watersheds; River; basins; Political; aspects; Case; studies; South; Africa; Tunisia; Uganda; Mali; Oum; Zessar; Watershed; Rwenzori; Region; Inner; Niger; Delta; Upper; Thukela; Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol23/iss1/art5/ES-2017-9728.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iwt:jounls:h048530

DOI: 10.5751/ES-09728-230105

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Papers published in Journals (Open Access) from International Water Management Institute Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chandima Gunadasa ().